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Cautious optimism: A balancing act
As history has proven, “cautious optimism” works. But history is written across years and decades, not three quarters.
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Past Articles
Economy
Recession’s not over till the NBER sings
Economists involved in business cycle information are painstaking when pronouncing the end of a recession. Over the past five downturns, they averaged 15 months between when the recession was over and when they said so. On three of those occasions — 1980, 1991 and 2001, the lag between the turning point and the bureau’s declaration was longer than the recession itself. […]
Economy
Economy keeps counting on consumers
Much of the optimism for the U.S. economy is the health of consumers. […]